Last August I downloaded population and earnings data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, from its Local Area Personal Income series, to use in my compilation of state and local government employment per 100,000 people. The data was for 1997, 2007, and 2017. As always I divided the state into four regions. New York City, whose population I got by adding up the five boroughs. The Downstate Suburbs, which I got by adding up Nassau, Putman, Rockland, Suffolk and Westchester Counties. The Upstate Urban Counties, the sum of Albany, Broome, Dutchess, Erie, Monroe, Niagara, Oneida, Onondaga, Orange, Rensselaer, Saratoga and Schenectady Counties. And the rural and small Rest of New York State, which I got by subtracting the other three areas from the state total. The data showed a big population drop for this part of the state from 2007 to 2017 – and a thus huge increase in local government employment per 100,000 people.
Local Area Personal Income data has been updated to 2018 recently.
And I started downloading it for possible use in another analysis. New York State’s 2017 population was exactly the same as the estimate released a year earlier. But New York City’s 2017 population was slashed by 184,427 (2.1%), with smaller decreases for the Downstate Suburbs and Upstate Urban Counties. Which means that since the Rest of New York State was obtained by subtraction, its population 2017 had soared by 247,319, a full 10.3% increase! Despite the fact that the 2017 population estimate for virtually every individual county in the Rest of New York State has gone down! It isn’t a surprise that the numbers are different. Numbers are revised all the time based on new information. But changes of this magnitude, despite NO change in the state total?
The best case scenario is a screw up. Which is pretty much what I believe about next year’s 2020 Census of Population.